{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance and External Threat\JohnsonISQrep\JohnsonISQrep.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res} 1 Jul 2016, 14:23:28

{com}. do "E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance and External Threat\JohnsonISQrep\JohnsonISQrep.do"
{txt}
{com}. * This file replicates the empirical analysis presented in "External Threat and Alliance Formation"
. * Jesse C. Johnson
. * 6/30/16
. 
. set more off
{txt}
{com}. cd "E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance and External Threat\JohnsonISQrep\"
{res}E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance and External Threat\JohnsonISQrep
{txt}
{com}. use "JohnsonISQrep.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}.  
.  * Table 1
.  
.         tab form if allied==0 & sample==1

     {txt}Target {c |}
     Formed {c |}
Alliance in {c |}
Observation {c |}
       Year {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}    651,989       97.47       97.47
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}     16,955        2.53      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}    668,944      100.00
{txt}
{com}.         tab form if allied==0 & precold==1 & sample==1

     {txt}Target {c |}
     Formed {c |}
Alliance in {c |}
Observation {c |}
       Year {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}    183,220       98.78       98.78
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      2,255        1.22      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}    185,475      100.00
{txt}
{com}.         tab form if allied==0 & cold==1 & sample==1

     {txt}Target {c |}
     Formed {c |}
Alliance in {c |}
Observation {c |}
       Year {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}    246,516       96.41       96.41
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      9,182        3.59      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}    255,698      100.00
{txt}
{com}.         tab form if allied==0 & precold==0 & cold==0 & sample==1

     {txt}Target {c |}
     Formed {c |}
Alliance in {c |}
Observation {c |}
       Year {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}    222,253       97.58       97.58
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      5,518        2.42      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}    227,771      100.00
{txt}
{com}.  
.         tab form if allied==0 & icow==1 & sample==1

     {txt}Target {c |}
     Formed {c |}
Alliance in {c |}
Observation {c |}
       Year {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}      6,373       97.87       97.87
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}        139        2.13      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      6,512      100.00
{txt}
{com}.         tab form if allied==0 & icow==1 & precold==1 & sample==1

     {txt}Target {c |}
     Formed {c |}
Alliance in {c |}
Observation {c |}
       Year {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}      4,896       98.65       98.65
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}         67        1.35      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      4,963      100.00
{txt}
{com}.         tab form if allied==0 & icow==1 & cold==1 & sample==1

     {txt}Target {c |}
     Formed {c |}
Alliance in {c |}
Observation {c |}
       Year {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}      1,073       95.72       95.72
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}         48        4.28      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      1,121      100.00
{txt}
{com}.         tab form if allied==0 & icow==1 & precold==0 & cold==0 & sample==1

     {txt}Target {c |}
     Formed {c |}
Alliance in {c |}
Observation {c |}
       Year {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}        404       94.39       94.39
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}         24        5.61      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        428      100.00
{txt}
{com}.  
. * Table 2
. 
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75353.631}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75175.493}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75174.518}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75174.517}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7751.46
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75174.517{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0490

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1159992{col 26}{space 2} .0096178{col 37}{space 1}   12.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0971487{col 67}{space 3} .1348497
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5069012{col 26}{space 2} .0182894{col 37}{space 1}   27.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4710546{col 67}{space 3} .5427477
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1310017{col 26}{space 2} .0189377{col 37}{space 1}    6.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0938845{col 67}{space 3} .1681188
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2751276{col 26}{space 2} .0080681{col 37}{space 1}  -34.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2909408{col 67}{space 3}-.2593144
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4672991{col 26}{space 2} .0111639{col 37}{space 1}  -41.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  -.48918{col 67}{space 3}-.4454183
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0318472{col 26}{space 2} .0079953{col 37}{space 1}    3.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0161766{col 67}{space 3} .0475177
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0393232{col 26}{space 2} .0007308{col 37}{space 1}  -53.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0407555{col 67}{space 3}-.0378909
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006928{col 26}{space 2} .0000171{col 37}{space 1}   40.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006594{col 67}{space 3} .0007263
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.13e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.33e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.94e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.510456{col 26}{space 2} .0112244{col 37}{space 1} -134.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.532456{col 67}{space 3}-1.488457
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -75346.18}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75167.901}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75166.918}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75166.917}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7766.66
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75166.917{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0491

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1170805{col 26}{space 2} .0091967{col 37}{space 1}   12.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0990554{col 67}{space 3} .1351056
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4929389{col 26}{space 2} .0180144{col 37}{space 1}   27.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4576313{col 67}{space 3} .5282464
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1079414{col 26}{space 2} .0190198{col 37}{space 1}    5.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0706633{col 67}{space 3} .1452196
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2790772{col 26}{space 2} .0080869{col 37}{space 1}  -34.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2949273{col 67}{space 3}-.2632272
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4627534{col 26}{space 2} .0111685{col 37}{space 1}  -41.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4846432{col 67}{space 3}-.4408635
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0324586{col 26}{space 2} .0079932{col 37}{space 1}    4.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0167923{col 67}{space 3}  .048125
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0392423{col 26}{space 2} .0007311{col 37}{space 1}  -53.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0406752{col 67}{space 3}-.0378094
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006919{col 26}{space 2} .0000171{col 37}{space 1}   40.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006584{col 67}{space 3} .0007254
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.13e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.33e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.94e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.494869{col 26}{space 2} .0105608{col 37}{space 1} -141.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.515568{col 67}{space 3} -1.47417
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0   

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-62848.394}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59889.961}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59760.907}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59760.475}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59760.475}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   537,282
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   6175.84
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-59760.475{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0491

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1480518{col 26}{space 2} .0101867{col 37}{space 1}   14.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1280861{col 67}{space 3} .1680174
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5617068{col 26}{space 2} .0211143{col 37}{space 1}   26.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5203235{col 67}{space 3} .6030902
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1300552{col 26}{space 2} .0211128{col 37}{space 1}    6.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .088675{col 67}{space 3} .1714355
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2477891{col 26}{space 2} .0092412{col 37}{space 1}  -26.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2659016{col 67}{space 3}-.2296767
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3595918{col 26}{space 2} .0143589{col 37}{space 1}  -25.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3877348{col 67}{space 3}-.3314489
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1308913{col 26}{space 2} .0089686{col 37}{space 1}   14.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1133132{col 67}{space 3} .1484694
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0360985{col 26}{space 2} .0007979{col 37}{space 1}  -45.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0376624{col 67}{space 3}-.0345347
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005824{col 26}{space 2} .0000179{col 37}{space 1}   32.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005472{col 67}{space 3} .0006176
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.47e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -24.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.67e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.27e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.646937{col 26}{space 2} .0127234{col 37}{space 1} -129.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.671874{col 67}{space 3}-1.621999
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  & icow==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-600.20898}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.72183}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.71038}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.71038}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    155.04
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-594.71038{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1153

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3138896{col 26}{space 2} .1284361{col 37}{space 1}    2.44{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4} .0621595{col 67}{space 3} .5656196
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7509284{col 26}{space 2} .1275126{col 37}{space 1}    5.89{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5010083{col 67}{space 3} 1.000849
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2358904{col 26}{space 2} .0987735{col 37}{space 1}    2.39{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4}  .042298{col 67}{space 3} .4294828
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2976987{col 26}{space 2} .0938552{col 37}{space 1}    3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}  .113746{col 67}{space 3} .4816515
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8720941{col 26}{space 2}  .126036{col 37}{space 1}   -6.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.11912{col 67}{space 3} -.625068
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2831334{col 26}{space 2} .1299368{col 37}{space 1}   -2.18{col 46}{space 3}0.029{col 54}{space 4}-.5378049{col 67}{space 3} -.028462
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0396171{col 26}{space 2} .0089654{col 37}{space 1}   -4.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0571889{col 67}{space 3}-.0220453
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006195{col 26}{space 2} .0002094{col 37}{space 1}    2.96{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0002091{col 67}{space 3} .0010298
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.14e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.30e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.64{col 46}{space 3}0.101{col 54}{space 4}-4.69e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.20e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.536184{col 26}{space 2} .1818299{col 37}{space 1}   -8.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.892564{col 67}{space 3}-1.179804
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-599.86787}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.18219}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.16862}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.16862}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    156.12
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-594.16862{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1161

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3513441{col 26}{space 2}  .133195{col 37}{space 1}    2.64{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .0902867{col 67}{space 3} .6124015
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7651322{col 26}{space 2} .1287502{col 37}{space 1}    5.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5127865{col 67}{space 3} 1.017478
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2198235{col 26}{space 2}  .098609{col 37}{space 1}    2.23{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4} .0265535{col 67}{space 3} .4130936
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2970961{col 26}{space 2} .0937978{col 37}{space 1}    3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .1132559{col 67}{space 3} .4809363
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8533602{col 26}{space 2} .1258759{col 37}{space 1}   -6.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.100072{col 67}{space 3} -.606648
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2875888{col 26}{space 2} .1300618{col 37}{space 1}   -2.21{col 46}{space 3}0.027{col 54}{space 4}-.5425052{col 67}{space 3}-.0326723
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0391974{col 26}{space 2}  .008963{col 37}{space 1}   -4.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0567646{col 67}{space 3}-.0216303
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006139{col 26}{space 2} .0002093{col 37}{space 1}    2.93{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0002036{col 67}{space 3} .0010242
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.12e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.30e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.63{col 46}{space 3}0.104{col 54}{space 4}-4.68e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.33e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.568257{col 26}{space 2} .1851926{col 37}{space 1}   -8.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.931228{col 67}{space 3}-1.205287
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-506.07949}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-444.57764}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-438.65775}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-438.60779}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-438.60776}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     4,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    134.94
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-438.60776{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1333

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3491349{col 26}{space 2} .1485839{col 37}{space 1}    2.35{col 46}{space 3}0.019{col 54}{space 4} .0579158{col 67}{space 3} .6403541
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .885574{col 26}{space 2}  .157168{col 37}{space 1}    5.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5775304{col 67}{space 3} 1.193618
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1789147{col 26}{space 2} .1143388{col 37}{space 1}    1.56{col 46}{space 3}0.118{col 54}{space 4}-.0451852{col 67}{space 3} .4030147
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2129159{col 26}{space 2} .1143277{col 37}{space 1}    1.86{col 46}{space 3}0.063{col 54}{space 4}-.0111623{col 67}{space 3}  .436994
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8844964{col 26}{space 2} .1594198{col 37}{space 1}   -5.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.196954{col 67}{space 3}-.5720393
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1830384{col 26}{space 2} .1442019{col 37}{space 1}   -1.27{col 46}{space 3}0.204{col 54}{space 4}-.4656691{col 67}{space 3} .0995922
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0451734{col 26}{space 2} .0104134{col 37}{space 1}   -4.34{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0655834{col 67}{space 3}-.0247634
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000635{col 26}{space 2} .0002407{col 37}{space 1}    2.64{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .0001632{col 67}{space 3} .0011067
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.91e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.48e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.29{col 46}{space 3}0.197{col 54}{space 4}-4.81e-06{col 67}{space 3} 9.93e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.496837{col 26}{space 2} .2105018{col 37}{space 1}   -7.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.909413{col 67}{space 3}-1.084261
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. * Table 3
. 
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3   

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-210493.19}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-197912.09}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-197277.24}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-197261.11}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-197261.07}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-197261.07}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res} 1,381,036
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}  26464.25
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-197261.07{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0629

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0524009{col 26}{space 2} .0060423{col 37}{space 1}    8.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0405582{col 67}{space 3} .0642437
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3997477{col 26}{space 2} .0081712{col 37}{space 1}   48.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3837324{col 67}{space 3} .4157629
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1259916{col 26}{space 2} .0119346{col 37}{space 1}   10.56{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1026001{col 67}{space 3}  .149383
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1591601{col 26}{space 2} .0050173{col 37}{space 1}  -31.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1689938{col 67}{space 3}-.1493265
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3151476{col 26}{space 2} .0078926{col 37}{space 1}  -39.93{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3306168{col 67}{space 3}-.2996783
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0491664{col 26}{space 2} .0049767{col 37}{space 1}    9.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0394121{col 67}{space 3} .0589206
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.055356{col 26}{space 2} .0005046{col 37}{space 1} -109.71{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.056345{col 67}{space 3}-.0543671
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0010418{col 26}{space 2} .0000141{col 37}{space 1}   73.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0010142{col 67}{space 3} .0010694
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.06e-06{col 26}{space 2} 9.40e-08{col 37}{space 1}  -53.85{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.25e-06{col 67}{space 3}-4.88e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.401782{col 26}{space 2} .0064535{col 37}{space 1} -217.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.414431{col 67}{space 3}-1.389133
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 422 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & big==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-65916.599}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-63107.054}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-62981.713}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-62980.951}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -62980.95}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   665,472
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   5871.30
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -62980.95{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0445

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .056023{col 26}{space 2} .0104587{col 37}{space 1}    5.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0355243{col 67}{space 3} .0765218
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5078447{col 26}{space 2}   .01847{col 37}{space 1}   27.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4716441{col 67}{space 3} .5440453
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1412606{col 26}{space 2} .0197739{col 37}{space 1}    7.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1025044{col 67}{space 3} .1800168
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3951484{col 26}{space 2} .0091718{col 37}{space 1}  -43.08{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4131248{col 67}{space 3} -.377172
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4623556{col 26}{space 2} .0115005{col 37}{space 1}  -40.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4848962{col 67}{space 3}-.4398149
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.084185{col 26}{space 2} .0087041{col 37}{space 1}   -9.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1012448{col 67}{space 3}-.0671251
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0355229{col 26}{space 2} .0007827{col 37}{space 1}  -45.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0370569{col 67}{space 3}-.0339889
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006251{col 26}{space 2} .0000182{col 37}{space 1}   34.27{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005894{col 67}{space 3} .0006609
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.83e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.08e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -26.27{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.04e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.62e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.520319{col 26}{space 2} .0119666{col 37}{space 1} -127.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.543773{col 67}{space 3}-1.496864
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.                         logit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75539.406}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75079.392}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75075.317}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75075.296}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75075.296}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7949.90
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75075.296{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0503

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2701883{col 26}{space 2} .0225574{col 37}{space 1}   11.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2259767{col 67}{space 3}    .3144
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.225382{col 26}{space 2}  .042701{col 37}{space 1}   28.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.141689{col 67}{space 3} 1.309074
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3031114{col 26}{space 2} .0431363{col 37}{space 1}    7.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2185658{col 67}{space 3}  .387657
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.673039{col 26}{space 2} .0196042{col 37}{space 1}  -34.33{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7114625{col 67}{space 3}-.6346155
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.185962{col 26}{space 2} .0285478{col 37}{space 1}  -41.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.241915{col 67}{space 3}-1.130009
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0640476{col 26}{space 2} .0187463{col 37}{space 1}    3.42{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0273055{col 67}{space 3} .1007896
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0963208{col 26}{space 2} .0017456{col 37}{space 1}  -55.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0997421{col 67}{space 3}-.0928996
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .001717{col 26}{space 2} .0000412{col 37}{space 1}   41.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0016363{col 67}{space 3} .0017978
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-7.82e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.45e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-8.30e-06{col 67}{space 3}-7.33e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.584231{col 26}{space 2} .0259135{col 37}{space 1}  -99.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -2.63502{col 67}{space 3}-2.533441
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.                         predict db1, dbeta
{txt}(756,636 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & db1<.02

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79009.819}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75310.191}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -75124.67}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75122.922}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75122.916}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,933
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7773.80
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75122.916{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0492

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1161035{col 26}{space 2} .0096206{col 37}{space 1}   12.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0972475{col 67}{space 3} .1349595
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5076753{col 26}{space 2} .0182863{col 37}{space 1}   27.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4718348{col 67}{space 3} .5435158
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1296279{col 26}{space 2} .0189614{col 37}{space 1}    6.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0924643{col 67}{space 3} .1667915
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2752494{col 26}{space 2} .0080693{col 37}{space 1}  -34.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2910649{col 67}{space 3}-.2594339
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.467352{col 26}{space 2} .0111636{col 37}{space 1}  -41.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4892323{col 67}{space 3}-.4454718
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0322802{col 26}{space 2} .0079983{col 37}{space 1}    4.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0166039{col 67}{space 3} .0479565
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0400361{col 26}{space 2} .0007465{col 37}{space 1}  -53.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0414992{col 67}{space 3}-.0385731
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007168{col 26}{space 2} .0000178{col 37}{space 1}   40.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006818{col 67}{space 3} .0007517
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.31e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.08e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -30.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.52e-06{col 67}{space 3}-3.10e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.507233{col 26}{space 2} .0112431{col 37}{space 1} -134.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.52927{col 67}{space 3}-1.485197
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.                         drop db1
{txt}
{com}.         
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if icow==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2220.4343}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1900.9536}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1879.0771}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1879.0122}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1879.0122}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    11,258
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    682.84
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-1879.0122{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1538

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1958597{col 26}{space 2}  .084187{col 37}{space 1}    2.33{col 46}{space 3}0.020{col 54}{space 4} .0308562{col 67}{space 3} .3608631
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7197338{col 26}{space 2} .0670355{col 37}{space 1}   10.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5883466{col 67}{space 3} .8511211
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1744963{col 26}{space 2} .0562908{col 37}{space 1}    3.10{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0641683{col 67}{space 3} .2848243
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1109918{col 26}{space 2} .0599513{col 37}{space 1}    1.85{col 46}{space 3}0.064{col 54}{space 4}-.0065105{col 67}{space 3} .2284942
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4103021{col 26}{space 2} .0790219{col 37}{space 1}   -5.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5651822{col 67}{space 3} -.255422
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1113153{col 26}{space 2} .0768439{col 37}{space 1}    1.45{col 46}{space 3}0.147{col 54}{space 4}-.0392961{col 67}{space 3} .2619266
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0601416{col 26}{space 2} .0050856{col 37}{space 1}  -11.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0701091{col 67}{space 3} -.050174
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0010607{col 26}{space 2} .0001314{col 37}{space 1}    8.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0008032{col 67}{space 3} .0013182
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.71e-06{col 26}{space 2} 8.62e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -5.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-6.40e-06{col 67}{space 3}-3.02e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.570018{col 26}{space 2} .1096953{col 37}{space 1}  -14.31{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.785017{col 67}{space 3} -1.35502
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1 & big==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -597.8028}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-537.50631}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-532.83521}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-532.82598}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-532.82598}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,493
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    129.95
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-532.82598{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1087

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3570248{col 26}{space 2} .1368621{col 37}{space 1}    2.61{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}   .08878{col 67}{space 3} .6252695
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8356538{col 26}{space 2} .1341623{col 37}{space 1}    6.23{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5727005{col 67}{space 3} 1.098607
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3367119{col 26}{space 2} .1068304{col 37}{space 1}    3.15{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .1273281{col 67}{space 3} .5460957
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1847478{col 26}{space 2}  .103525{col 37}{space 1}    1.78{col 46}{space 3}0.074{col 54}{space 4}-.0181575{col 67}{space 3} .3876531
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8047036{col 26}{space 2}  .132903{col 37}{space 1}   -6.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.065189{col 67}{space 3}-.5442184
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3221222{col 26}{space 2} .1405022{col 37}{space 1}   -2.29{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4}-.5975014{col 67}{space 3} -.046743
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0390586{col 26}{space 2} .0093864{col 37}{space 1}   -4.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0574555{col 67}{space 3}-.0206616
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006173{col 26}{space 2}  .000217{col 37}{space 1}    2.84{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .0001919{col 67}{space 3} .0010426
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.13e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.34e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.58{col 46}{space 3}0.113{col 54}{space 4}-4.76e-06{col 67}{space 3} 5.05e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.725813{col 26}{space 2} .1947189{col 37}{space 1}   -8.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.107455{col 67}{space 3}-1.344171
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.                         logit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-646.66877}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-593.45793}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-593.19327}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-593.19297}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-593.19297}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    158.07
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-593.19297{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1176

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6963139{col 26}{space 2}  .297119{col 37}{space 1}    2.34{col 46}{space 3}0.019{col 54}{space 4} .1139713{col 67}{space 3} 1.278656
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.79271{col 26}{space 2} .3055239{col 37}{space 1}    5.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.193894{col 67}{space 3} 2.391525
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5248975{col 26}{space 2} .2324443{col 37}{space 1}    2.26{col 46}{space 3}0.024{col 54}{space 4}  .069315{col 67}{space 3} .9804801
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .607037{col 26}{space 2} .2119827{col 37}{space 1}    2.86{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .1915585{col 67}{space 3} 1.022515
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.127395{col 26}{space 2} .2857885{col 37}{space 1}   -7.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.687531{col 67}{space 3} -1.56726
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6127838{col 26}{space 2} .2701998{col 37}{space 1}   -2.27{col 46}{space 3}0.023{col 54}{space 4}-1.142366{col 67}{space 3}-.0832019
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0943899{col 26}{space 2} .0208576{col 37}{space 1}   -4.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1352701{col 67}{space 3}-.0535096
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .001542{col 26}{space 2} .0004869{col 37}{space 1}    3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0005876{col 67}{space 3} .0024963
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.70e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.99e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.057{col 54}{space 4}-.0000116{col 67}{space 3} 1.59e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  -2.6855{col 26}{space 2} .4053335{col 37}{space 1}   -6.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.479939{col 67}{space 3} -1.89106
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.                         predict db2, dbeta
{txt}(1,419,068 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1 & db2<.1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-589.80438}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-528.50852}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-522.94517}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -522.9302}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -522.9302}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,491
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    133.75
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -522.9302{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1134

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3551817{col 26}{space 2} .1370885{col 37}{space 1}    2.59{col 46}{space 3}0.010{col 54}{space 4} .0864932{col 67}{space 3} .6238701
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8589991{col 26}{space 2} .1408742{col 37}{space 1}    6.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5828909{col 67}{space 3} 1.135107
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3756049{col 26}{space 2} .1117611{col 37}{space 1}    3.36{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .1565572{col 67}{space 3} .5946525
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1571358{col 26}{space 2}  .104107{col 37}{space 1}    1.51{col 46}{space 3}0.131{col 54}{space 4}-.0469103{col 67}{space 3} .3611818
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7694289{col 26}{space 2} .1381808{col 37}{space 1}   -5.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.040258{col 67}{space 3}-.4985994
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2025903{col 26}{space 2} .1398607{col 37}{space 1}   -1.45{col 46}{space 3}0.147{col 54}{space 4}-.4767123{col 67}{space 3} .0715317
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0478055{col 26}{space 2} .0098665{col 37}{space 1}   -4.85{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0671435{col 67}{space 3}-.0284675
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0008179{col 26}{space 2} .0002443{col 37}{space 1}    3.35{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0003391{col 67}{space 3} .0012966
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.66e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.60e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -2.29{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4}-6.79e-06{col 67}{space 3}-5.29e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.699335{col 26}{space 2} .1989154{col 37}{space 1}   -8.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.089202{col 67}{space 3}-1.309468
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.                         drop db2
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Table 4
.         
.         probit form midcount if allied==0  & sample==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.243}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}1{txt}){col 67}= {res}      0.01
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.9171
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-79050.243{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}midcount {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0014661{col 26}{space 2} .0139871{col 37}{space 1}    0.10{col 46}{space 3}0.917{col 54}{space 4}-.0259481{col 67}{space 3} .0288803
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.954112{col 26}{space 2} .0032657{col 37}{space 1} -598.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.960513{col 67}{space 3}-1.947712
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form midcount t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & sample==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75422.701}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -75247.89}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75246.878}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75246.877}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7606.74
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75246.877{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0481

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}midcount {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0185353{col 26}{space 2} .0140696{col 37}{space 1}    1.32{col 46}{space 3}0.188{col 54}{space 4}-.0090406{col 67}{space 3} .0461112
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4537664{col 26}{space 2} .0177446{col 37}{space 1}   25.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4189877{col 67}{space 3} .4885451
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1248103{col 26}{space 2} .0195614{col 37}{space 1}    6.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0864706{col 67}{space 3} .1631501
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2719754{col 26}{space 2} .0080558{col 37}{space 1}  -33.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2877645{col 67}{space 3}-.2561863
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4662733{col 26}{space 2} .0111598{col 37}{space 1}  -41.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4881461{col 67}{space 3}-.4444006
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0349123{col 26}{space 2} .0079878{col 37}{space 1}    4.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0192565{col 67}{space 3}  .050568
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0396212{col 26}{space 2} .0007309{col 37}{space 1}  -54.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0410537{col 67}{space 3}-.0381887
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006986{col 26}{space 2} .0000171{col 37}{space 1}   40.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006651{col 67}{space 3} .0007322
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.16e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.36e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.96e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.444282{col 26}{space 2} .0097655{col 37}{space 1} -147.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.463422{col 67}{space 3}-1.425142
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form midcount c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & sample==1 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75353.235}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75175.004}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75174.025}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75174.024}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}10{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7752.45
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75174.024{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0490

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}midcount {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0143229{col 26}{space 2} .0142181{col 37}{space 1}    1.01{col 46}{space 3}0.314{col 54}{space 4} -.013544{col 67}{space 3} .0421898
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1157637{col 26}{space 2} .0096207{col 37}{space 1}   12.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0969075{col 67}{space 3} .1346198
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5062885{col 26}{space 2} .0182992{col 37}{space 1}   27.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4704227{col 67}{space 3} .5421543
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .126184{col 26}{space 2} .0195616{col 37}{space 1}    6.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .087844{col 67}{space 3} .1645239
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2752523{col 26}{space 2}  .008069{col 37}{space 1}  -34.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2910673{col 67}{space 3}-.2594372
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4675355{col 26}{space 2} .0111663{col 37}{space 1}  -41.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4894211{col 67}{space 3}-.4456499
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0317318{col 26}{space 2} .0079962{col 37}{space 1}    3.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0160595{col 67}{space 3} .0474041
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0393372{col 26}{space 2}  .000731{col 37}{space 1}  -53.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0407699{col 67}{space 3}-.0379045
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006931{col 26}{space 2} .0000171{col 37}{space 1}   40.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006596{col 67}{space 3} .0007266
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.14e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.33e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.94e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.510183{col 26}{space 2} .0112276{col 37}{space 1} -134.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.532189{col 67}{space 3}-1.488177
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         probit form midcount if allied==0  & icow==1 & sample==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -672.2218}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -672.2218}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}1{txt}){col 67}= {res}      0.01
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.9056
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -672.2218{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}midcount {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0030857{col 26}{space 2}  .026162{col 37}{space 1}   -0.12{col 46}{space 3}0.906{col 54}{space 4}-.0543623{col 67}{space 3} .0481908
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.024994{col 26}{space 2} .0379217{col 37}{space 1}  -53.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.099319{col 67}{space 3}-1.950669
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form midcount t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  & icow==1 & sample==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-602.63107}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-597.52503}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-597.51438}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-597.51438}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    149.43
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-597.51438{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1111

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}midcount {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0187865{col 26}{space 2} .0290759{col 37}{space 1}   -0.65{col 46}{space 3}0.518{col 54}{space 4}-.0757741{col 67}{space 3} .0382012
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6162979{col 26}{space 2} .1144353{col 37}{space 1}    5.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3920088{col 67}{space 3} .8405871
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .222678{col 26}{space 2} .0994902{col 37}{space 1}    2.24{col 46}{space 3}0.025{col 54}{space 4} .0276809{col 67}{space 3} .4176752
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3211481{col 26}{space 2} .0937666{col 37}{space 1}    3.42{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}  .137369{col 67}{space 3} .5049272
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8520899{col 26}{space 2} .1249029{col 37}{space 1}   -6.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.096895{col 67}{space 3}-.6072848
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2497784{col 26}{space 2} .1312355{col 37}{space 1}   -1.90{col 46}{space 3}0.057{col 54}{space 4}-.5069952{col 67}{space 3} .0074383
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.038284{col 26}{space 2}  .008993{col 37}{space 1}   -4.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0559101{col 67}{space 3} -.020658
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005938{col 26}{space 2} .0002093{col 37}{space 1}    2.84{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} .0001835{col 67}{space 3} .0010041
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.02e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.30e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.121{col 54}{space 4}-4.58e-06{col 67}{space 3} 5.31e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.369578{col 26}{space 2} .1657479{col 37}{space 1}   -8.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.694438{col 67}{space 3}-1.044718
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form midcount t_maj c_win ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  & icow==1 & sample==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-599.90413}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.41841}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.40682}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.40682}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}10{txt}){col 67}= {res}    155.64
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-594.40682{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1158

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}midcount {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0224942{col 26}{space 2} .0298556{col 37}{space 1}   -0.75{col 46}{space 3}0.451{col 54}{space 4}-.0810101{col 67}{space 3} .0360216
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7546886{col 26}{space 2} .1276216{col 37}{space 1}    5.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5045549{col 67}{space 3} 1.004822
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3178873{col 26}{space 2}  .128311{col 37}{space 1}    2.48{col 46}{space 3}0.013{col 54}{space 4} .0664023{col 67}{space 3} .5693723
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2468831{col 26}{space 2} .0997437{col 37}{space 1}    2.48{col 46}{space 3}0.013{col 54}{space 4}  .051389{col 67}{space 3} .4423773
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3041929{col 26}{space 2} .0942011{col 37}{space 1}    3.23{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .1195621{col 67}{space 3} .4888236
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8697088{col 26}{space 2} .1260611{col 37}{space 1}   -6.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.116784{col 67}{space 3}-.6226335
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2647442{col 26}{space 2} .1321257{col 37}{space 1}   -2.00{col 46}{space 3}0.045{col 54}{space 4}-.5237057{col 67}{space 3}-.0057826
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0386517{col 26}{space 2} .0090405{col 37}{space 1}   -4.28{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0563707{col 67}{space 3}-.0209327
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006049{col 26}{space 2}   .00021{col 37}{space 1}    2.88{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .0001933{col 67}{space 3} .0010165
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.08e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.31e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.59{col 46}{space 3}0.111{col 54}{space 4}-4.64e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.79e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.550707{col 26}{space 2}  .182826{col 37}{space 1}   -8.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.909039{col 67}{space 3}-1.192375
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. * Appendix
. 
. * Figures A1 and A2: Delta-Beta Scatterplots
. 
.         logit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75539.406}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75079.392}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75075.317}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75075.296}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75075.296}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7949.90
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75075.296{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0503

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2701883{col 26}{space 2} .0225574{col 37}{space 1}   11.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2259767{col 67}{space 3}    .3144
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.225382{col 26}{space 2}  .042701{col 37}{space 1}   28.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.141689{col 67}{space 3} 1.309074
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3031114{col 26}{space 2} .0431363{col 37}{space 1}    7.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2185658{col 67}{space 3}  .387657
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.673039{col 26}{space 2} .0196042{col 37}{space 1}  -34.33{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7114625{col 67}{space 3}-.6346155
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.185962{col 26}{space 2} .0285478{col 37}{space 1}  -41.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.241915{col 67}{space 3}-1.130009
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0640476{col 26}{space 2} .0187463{col 37}{space 1}    3.42{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0273055{col 67}{space 3} .1007896
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0963208{col 26}{space 2} .0017456{col 37}{space 1}  -55.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0997421{col 67}{space 3}-.0928996
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .001717{col 26}{space 2} .0000412{col 37}{space 1}   41.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0016363{col 67}{space 3} .0017978
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-7.82e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.45e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-8.30e-06{col 67}{space 3}-7.33e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.584231{col 26}{space 2} .0259135{col 37}{space 1}  -99.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -2.63502{col 67}{space 3}-2.533441
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         predict db1, dbeta
{txt}(756,636 missing values generated)

{com}.         scatter db1 tc, scheme(s1mono) ytitle("Pregibon's Delta-Beta") yline(.02, lpattern(dash)) plotregion(margin(medium)) 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         drop db1
{txt}
{com}.         
.         logit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-646.66877}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-593.45793}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-593.19327}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-593.19297}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-593.19297}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    158.07
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-593.19297{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1176

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6963139{col 26}{space 2}  .297119{col 37}{space 1}    2.34{col 46}{space 3}0.019{col 54}{space 4} .1139713{col 67}{space 3} 1.278656
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.79271{col 26}{space 2} .3055239{col 37}{space 1}    5.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.193894{col 67}{space 3} 2.391525
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5248975{col 26}{space 2} .2324443{col 37}{space 1}    2.26{col 46}{space 3}0.024{col 54}{space 4}  .069315{col 67}{space 3} .9804801
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .607037{col 26}{space 2} .2119827{col 37}{space 1}    2.86{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .1915585{col 67}{space 3} 1.022515
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.127395{col 26}{space 2} .2857885{col 37}{space 1}   -7.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.687531{col 67}{space 3} -1.56726
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6127838{col 26}{space 2} .2701998{col 37}{space 1}   -2.27{col 46}{space 3}0.023{col 54}{space 4}-1.142366{col 67}{space 3}-.0832019
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0943899{col 26}{space 2} .0208576{col 37}{space 1}   -4.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1352701{col 67}{space 3}-.0535096
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .001542{col 26}{space 2} .0004869{col 37}{space 1}    3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0005876{col 67}{space 3} .0024963
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.70e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.99e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.057{col 54}{space 4}-.0000116{col 67}{space 3} 1.59e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  -2.6855{col 26}{space 2} .4053335{col 37}{space 1}   -6.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.479939{col 67}{space 3} -1.89106
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         predict db2, dbeta
{txt}(1,419,068 missing values generated)

{com}.         scatter db2 tc, scheme(s1mono) ytitle("Pregibon's Delta-Beta") yline(.1, lpattern(dash)) plotregion(margin(medium)) 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         drop db2
{txt}
{com}.         
. * Table A1: Classical versus Robust Standard Errors 
. 
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75353.631}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75175.493}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75174.518}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75174.517}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7751.46
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75174.517{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0490

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1159992{col 26}{space 2} .0096178{col 37}{space 1}   12.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0971487{col 67}{space 3} .1348497
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5069012{col 26}{space 2} .0182894{col 37}{space 1}   27.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4710546{col 67}{space 3} .5427477
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1310017{col 26}{space 2} .0189377{col 37}{space 1}    6.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0938845{col 67}{space 3} .1681188
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2751276{col 26}{space 2} .0080681{col 37}{space 1}  -34.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2909408{col 67}{space 3}-.2593144
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4672991{col 26}{space 2} .0111639{col 37}{space 1}  -41.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  -.48918{col 67}{space 3}-.4454183
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0318472{col 26}{space 2} .0079953{col 37}{space 1}    3.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0161766{col 67}{space 3} .0475177
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0393232{col 26}{space 2} .0007308{col 37}{space 1}  -53.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0407555{col 67}{space 3}-.0378909
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006928{col 26}{space 2} .0000171{col 37}{space 1}   40.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006594{col 67}{space 3} .0007263
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.13e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.33e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.94e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.510456{col 26}{space 2} .0112244{col 37}{space 1} -134.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.532456{col 67}{space 3}-1.488457
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0, robust  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-75353.631}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-75175.493}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-75174.518}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-75174.517}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   5956.15
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-75174.517{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0490

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1159992{col 26}{space 2} .0094178{col 37}{space 1}   12.32{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0975406{col 67}{space 3} .1344578
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5069012{col 26}{space 2} .0184238{col 37}{space 1}   27.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4707912{col 67}{space 3} .5430112
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1310017{col 26}{space 2} .0189379{col 37}{space 1}    6.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .093884{col 67}{space 3} .1681194
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2751276{col 26}{space 2}  .008985{col 37}{space 1}  -30.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2927378{col 67}{space 3}-.2575174
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4672991{col 26}{space 2} .0121017{col 37}{space 1}  -38.61{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4910181{col 67}{space 3}-.4435802
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0318472{col 26}{space 2} .0084779{col 37}{space 1}    3.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0152307{col 67}{space 3} .0484636
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0393232{col 26}{space 2} .0007798{col 37}{space 1}  -50.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0408515{col 67}{space 3}-.0377949
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006928{col 26}{space 2} .0000179{col 37}{space 1}   38.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006578{col 67}{space 3} .0007279
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.13e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.04e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -30.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.34e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.93e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.510456{col 26}{space 2} .0120636{col 37}{space 1} -125.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.534101{col 67}{space 3}-1.486812
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -75346.18}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75167.901}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75166.918}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75166.917}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7766.66
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75166.917{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0491

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1170805{col 26}{space 2} .0091967{col 37}{space 1}   12.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0990554{col 67}{space 3} .1351056
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4929389{col 26}{space 2} .0180144{col 37}{space 1}   27.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4576313{col 67}{space 3} .5282464
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1079414{col 26}{space 2} .0190198{col 37}{space 1}    5.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0706633{col 67}{space 3} .1452196
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2790772{col 26}{space 2} .0080869{col 37}{space 1}  -34.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2949273{col 67}{space 3}-.2632272
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4627534{col 26}{space 2} .0111685{col 37}{space 1}  -41.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4846432{col 67}{space 3}-.4408635
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0324586{col 26}{space 2} .0079932{col 37}{space 1}    4.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0167923{col 67}{space 3}  .048125
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0392423{col 26}{space 2} .0007311{col 37}{space 1}  -53.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0406752{col 67}{space 3}-.0378094
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006919{col 26}{space 2} .0000171{col 37}{space 1}   40.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006584{col 67}{space 3} .0007254
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.13e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.33e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.94e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.494869{col 26}{space 2} .0105608{col 37}{space 1} -141.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.515568{col 67}{space 3} -1.47417
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0, robust  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -75346.18}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-75167.901}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-75166.918}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-75166.917}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   5975.50
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-75166.917{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0491

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1170805{col 26}{space 2} .0090306{col 37}{space 1}   12.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0993807{col 67}{space 3} .1347802
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4929389{col 26}{space 2} .0181341{col 37}{space 1}   27.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4573966{col 67}{space 3} .5284811
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1079414{col 26}{space 2} .0190093{col 37}{space 1}    5.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0706839{col 67}{space 3} .1451989
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2790772{col 26}{space 2} .0089973{col 37}{space 1}  -31.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2967116{col 67}{space 3}-.2614428
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4627534{col 26}{space 2}   .01211{col 37}{space 1}  -38.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4864886{col 67}{space 3}-.4390182
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0324586{col 26}{space 2} .0084784{col 37}{space 1}    3.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0158413{col 67}{space 3}  .049076
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0392423{col 26}{space 2} .0007803{col 37}{space 1}  -50.29{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0407717{col 67}{space 3} -.037713
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006919{col 26}{space 2} .0000179{col 37}{space 1}   38.64{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006568{col 67}{space 3}  .000727
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.13e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.04e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -30.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.34e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.93e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.494869{col 26}{space 2} .0114471{col 37}{space 1} -130.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.517305{col 67}{space 3}-1.472433
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0   

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-62848.394}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59889.961}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59760.907}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59760.475}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59760.475}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   537,282
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   6175.84
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-59760.475{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0491

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1480518{col 26}{space 2} .0101867{col 37}{space 1}   14.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1280861{col 67}{space 3} .1680174
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5617068{col 26}{space 2} .0211143{col 37}{space 1}   26.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5203235{col 67}{space 3} .6030902
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1300552{col 26}{space 2} .0211128{col 37}{space 1}    6.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .088675{col 67}{space 3} .1714355
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2477891{col 26}{space 2} .0092412{col 37}{space 1}  -26.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2659016{col 67}{space 3}-.2296767
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3595918{col 26}{space 2} .0143589{col 37}{space 1}  -25.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3877348{col 67}{space 3}-.3314489
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1308913{col 26}{space 2} .0089686{col 37}{space 1}   14.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1133132{col 67}{space 3} .1484694
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0360985{col 26}{space 2} .0007979{col 37}{space 1}  -45.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0376624{col 67}{space 3}-.0345347
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005824{col 26}{space 2} .0000179{col 37}{space 1}   32.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005472{col 67}{space 3} .0006176
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.47e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -24.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.67e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.27e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.646937{col 26}{space 2} .0127234{col 37}{space 1} -129.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.671874{col 67}{space 3}-1.621999
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0, robust                 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-62848.394}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-59889.961}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-59760.907}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-59760.475}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-59760.475}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   537,282
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   5188.34
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-59760.475{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0491

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1480518{col 26}{space 2} .0100369{col 37}{space 1}   14.75{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1283797{col 67}{space 3} .1677238
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5617068{col 26}{space 2}  .021098{col 37}{space 1}   26.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5203556{col 67}{space 3} .6030581
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1300552{col 26}{space 2} .0211108{col 37}{space 1}    6.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0886789{col 67}{space 3} .1714316
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2477891{col 26}{space 2} .0104193{col 37}{space 1}  -23.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2682107{col 67}{space 3}-.2273676
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3595918{col 26}{space 2} .0156431{col 37}{space 1}  -22.99{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3902518{col 67}{space 3}-.3289319
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1308913{col 26}{space 2} .0098081{col 37}{space 1}   13.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1116678{col 67}{space 3} .1501148
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0360985{col 26}{space 2} .0008241{col 37}{space 1}  -43.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0377137{col 67}{space 3}-.0344834
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005824{col 26}{space 2} .0000178{col 37}{space 1}   32.80{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005476{col 67}{space 3} .0006172
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.47e-06{col 26}{space 2} 9.49e-08{col 37}{space 1}  -26.00{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.65e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.28e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.646937{col 26}{space 2}  .013657{col 37}{space 1} -120.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.673704{col 67}{space 3} -1.62017
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Table A2: Classical versus Robust Standard Errors (Territory)
. 
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-600.20898}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.72183}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.71038}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.71038}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    155.04
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-594.71038{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1153

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3138896{col 26}{space 2} .1284361{col 37}{space 1}    2.44{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4} .0621595{col 67}{space 3} .5656196
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7509284{col 26}{space 2} .1275126{col 37}{space 1}    5.89{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5010083{col 67}{space 3} 1.000849
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2358904{col 26}{space 2} .0987735{col 37}{space 1}    2.39{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4}  .042298{col 67}{space 3} .4294828
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2976987{col 26}{space 2} .0938552{col 37}{space 1}    3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}  .113746{col 67}{space 3} .4816515
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8720941{col 26}{space 2}  .126036{col 37}{space 1}   -6.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.11912{col 67}{space 3} -.625068
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2831334{col 26}{space 2} .1299368{col 37}{space 1}   -2.18{col 46}{space 3}0.029{col 54}{space 4}-.5378049{col 67}{space 3} -.028462
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0396171{col 26}{space 2} .0089654{col 37}{space 1}   -4.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0571889{col 67}{space 3}-.0220453
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006195{col 26}{space 2} .0002094{col 37}{space 1}    2.96{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0002091{col 67}{space 3} .0010298
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.14e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.30e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.64{col 46}{space 3}0.101{col 54}{space 4}-4.69e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.20e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.536184{col 26}{space 2} .1818299{col 37}{space 1}   -8.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.892564{col 67}{space 3}-1.179804
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1, robust  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-600.20898}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-594.72183}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-594.71038}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-594.71038}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    131.93
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-594.71038{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1153

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3138896{col 26}{space 2} .1231365{col 37}{space 1}    2.55{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4} .0725464{col 67}{space 3} .5552328
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7509284{col 26}{space 2}  .135899{col 37}{space 1}    5.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4845712{col 67}{space 3} 1.017286
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2358904{col 26}{space 2} .0989499{col 37}{space 1}    2.38{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4} .0419522{col 67}{space 3} .4298286
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2976987{col 26}{space 2} .0970805{col 37}{space 1}    3.07{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .1074244{col 67}{space 3} .4879731
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8720941{col 26}{space 2} .1318333{col 37}{space 1}   -6.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.130483{col 67}{space 3}-.6137056
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2831334{col 26}{space 2} .1209935{col 37}{space 1}   -2.34{col 46}{space 3}0.019{col 54}{space 4}-.5202763{col 67}{space 3}-.0459905
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0396171{col 26}{space 2} .0096594{col 37}{space 1}   -4.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0585492{col 67}{space 3}-.0206849
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006195{col 26}{space 2} .0002338{col 37}{space 1}    2.65{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .0001612{col 67}{space 3} .0010778
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.14e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.47e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.45{col 46}{space 3}0.146{col 54}{space 4}-5.02e-06{col 67}{space 3} 7.46e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.536184{col 26}{space 2} .1792381{col 37}{space 1}   -8.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.887484{col 67}{space 3}-1.184883
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-599.86787}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.18219}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.16862}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.16862}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    156.12
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-594.16862{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1161

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3513441{col 26}{space 2}  .133195{col 37}{space 1}    2.64{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .0902867{col 67}{space 3} .6124015
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7651322{col 26}{space 2} .1287502{col 37}{space 1}    5.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5127865{col 67}{space 3} 1.017478
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2198235{col 26}{space 2}  .098609{col 37}{space 1}    2.23{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4} .0265535{col 67}{space 3} .4130936
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2970961{col 26}{space 2} .0937978{col 37}{space 1}    3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .1132559{col 67}{space 3} .4809363
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8533602{col 26}{space 2} .1258759{col 37}{space 1}   -6.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.100072{col 67}{space 3} -.606648
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2875888{col 26}{space 2} .1300618{col 37}{space 1}   -2.21{col 46}{space 3}0.027{col 54}{space 4}-.5425052{col 67}{space 3}-.0326723
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0391974{col 26}{space 2}  .008963{col 37}{space 1}   -4.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0567646{col 67}{space 3}-.0216303
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006139{col 26}{space 2} .0002093{col 37}{space 1}    2.93{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0002036{col 67}{space 3} .0010242
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.12e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.30e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.63{col 46}{space 3}0.104{col 54}{space 4}-4.68e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.33e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.568257{col 26}{space 2} .1851926{col 37}{space 1}   -8.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.931228{col 67}{space 3}-1.205287
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1, robust  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-599.86787}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-594.18219}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-594.16862}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-594.16862}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    128.26
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-594.16862{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1161

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3513441{col 26}{space 2} .1267565{col 37}{space 1}    2.77{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4}  .102906{col 67}{space 3} .5997822
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7651322{col 26}{space 2} .1378236{col 37}{space 1}    5.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .495003{col 67}{space 3} 1.035261
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2198235{col 26}{space 2} .0982986{col 37}{space 1}    2.24{col 46}{space 3}0.025{col 54}{space 4} .0271617{col 67}{space 3} .4124853
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2970961{col 26}{space 2} .0970629{col 37}{space 1}    3.06{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .1068564{col 67}{space 3} .4873358
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8533602{col 26}{space 2} .1314858{col 37}{space 1}   -6.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.111068{col 67}{space 3}-.5956527
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2875888{col 26}{space 2} .1209965{col 37}{space 1}   -2.38{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4}-.5247376{col 67}{space 3}  -.05044
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0391974{col 26}{space 2}  .009685{col 37}{space 1}   -4.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0581796{col 67}{space 3}-.0202152
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006139{col 26}{space 2} .0002343{col 37}{space 1}    2.62{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4} .0001546{col 67}{space 3} .0010732
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.12e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.47e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.149{col 54}{space 4}-5.01e-06{col 67}{space 3} 7.63e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.568257{col 26}{space 2} .1816594{col 37}{space 1}   -8.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.924303{col 67}{space 3}-1.212212
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1   

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-506.07949}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-444.57764}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-438.65775}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-438.60779}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-438.60776}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     4,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    134.94
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-438.60776{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1333

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3491349{col 26}{space 2} .1485839{col 37}{space 1}    2.35{col 46}{space 3}0.019{col 54}{space 4} .0579158{col 67}{space 3} .6403541
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .885574{col 26}{space 2}  .157168{col 37}{space 1}    5.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5775304{col 67}{space 3} 1.193618
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1789147{col 26}{space 2} .1143388{col 37}{space 1}    1.56{col 46}{space 3}0.118{col 54}{space 4}-.0451852{col 67}{space 3} .4030147
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2129159{col 26}{space 2} .1143277{col 37}{space 1}    1.86{col 46}{space 3}0.063{col 54}{space 4}-.0111623{col 67}{space 3}  .436994
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8844964{col 26}{space 2} .1594198{col 37}{space 1}   -5.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.196954{col 67}{space 3}-.5720393
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1830384{col 26}{space 2} .1442019{col 37}{space 1}   -1.27{col 46}{space 3}0.204{col 54}{space 4}-.4656691{col 67}{space 3} .0995922
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0451734{col 26}{space 2} .0104134{col 37}{space 1}   -4.34{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0655834{col 67}{space 3}-.0247634
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000635{col 26}{space 2} .0002407{col 37}{space 1}    2.64{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .0001632{col 67}{space 3} .0011067
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.91e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.48e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.29{col 46}{space 3}0.197{col 54}{space 4}-4.81e-06{col 67}{space 3} 9.93e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.496837{col 26}{space 2} .2105018{col 37}{space 1}   -7.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.909413{col 67}{space 3}-1.084261
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1, robust       

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-506.07949}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-444.57764}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-438.65775}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-438.60779}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-438.60776}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     4,512
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    115.34
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-438.60776{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1333

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3491349{col 26}{space 2} .1386817{col 37}{space 1}    2.52{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4} .0773239{col 67}{space 3}  .620946
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .885574{col 26}{space 2}  .165353{col 37}{space 1}    5.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5614881{col 67}{space 3}  1.20966
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1789147{col 26}{space 2} .1115467{col 37}{space 1}    1.60{col 46}{space 3}0.109{col 54}{space 4}-.0397127{col 67}{space 3} .3975422
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2129159{col 26}{space 2} .1211615{col 37}{space 1}    1.76{col 46}{space 3}0.079{col 54}{space 4}-.0245564{col 67}{space 3} .4503881
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8844964{col 26}{space 2} .1747374{col 37}{space 1}   -5.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.226975{col 67}{space 3}-.5420175
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1830384{col 26}{space 2} .1347553{col 37}{space 1}   -1.36{col 46}{space 3}0.174{col 54}{space 4}-.4471539{col 67}{space 3} .0810771
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0451734{col 26}{space 2} .0114773{col 37}{space 1}   -3.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0676685{col 67}{space 3}-.0226783
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000635{col 26}{space 2} .0002726{col 37}{space 1}    2.33{col 46}{space 3}0.020{col 54}{space 4} .0001006{col 67}{space 3} .0011693
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.91e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.68e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.13{col 46}{space 3}0.257{col 54}{space 4}-5.21e-06{col 67}{space 3} 1.39e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.496837{col 26}{space 2} .2035084{col 37}{space 1}   -7.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.895707{col 67}{space 3}-1.097968
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. * Table A3: Politically Relevant Dyads
. 
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  & pol_rel==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-10042.313}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-9564.7157}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-9544.7381}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-9544.6637}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-9544.6637}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    81,270
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    995.30
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-9544.6637{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0496

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1642478{col 26}{space 2}  .045358{col 37}{space 1}    3.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0753476{col 67}{space 3} .2531479
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5004794{col 26}{space 2} .0423983{col 37}{space 1}   11.80{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4173804{col 67}{space 3} .5835785
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0977624{col 26}{space 2} .0261447{col 37}{space 1}    3.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0465196{col 67}{space 3} .1490052
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.181527{col 26}{space 2} .0236712{col 37}{space 1}   -7.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2279217{col 67}{space 3}-.1351323
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4202865{col 26}{space 2} .0271665{col 37}{space 1}  -15.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4735319{col 67}{space 3}-.3670412
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1310288{col 26}{space 2} .0287109{col 37}{space 1}    4.56{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0747565{col 67}{space 3} .1873011
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0285515{col 26}{space 2} .0018133{col 37}{space 1}  -15.75{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0321055{col 67}{space 3}-.0249974
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0004808{col 26}{space 2}  .000035{col 37}{space 1}   13.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0004122{col 67}{space 3} .0005494
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.06e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.81e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -11.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.41e-06{col 67}{space 3}-1.70e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.668488{col 26}{space 2} .0515527{col 37}{space 1}  -32.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.76953{col 67}{space 3}-1.567447
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & pol_rel==1 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-10042.313}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-9561.8767}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-9541.3683}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-9541.2963}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-9541.2963}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    81,270
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   1002.03
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-9541.2963{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0499

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2061023{col 26}{space 2} .0465136{col 37}{space 1}    4.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1149373{col 67}{space 3} .2972672
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5317585{col 26}{space 2} .0429815{col 37}{space 1}   12.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4475163{col 67}{space 3} .6160008
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0926913{col 26}{space 2}  .024521{col 37}{space 1}    3.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .044631{col 67}{space 3} .1407515
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1832199{col 26}{space 2} .0236756{col 37}{space 1}   -7.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2296232{col 67}{space 3}-.1368167
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4166483{col 26}{space 2} .0271437{col 37}{space 1}  -15.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4698489{col 67}{space 3}-.3634477
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .129147{col 26}{space 2} .0287118{col 37}{space 1}    4.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0728729{col 67}{space 3} .1854212
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0283806{col 26}{space 2} .0018143{col 37}{space 1}  -15.64{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0319365{col 67}{space 3}-.0248248
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0004788{col 26}{space 2}  .000035{col 37}{space 1}   13.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0004102{col 67}{space 3} .0005475
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.05e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.81e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -11.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.41e-06{col 67}{space 3}-1.70e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.703623{col 26}{space 2} .0520678{col 37}{space 1}  -32.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.805674{col 67}{space 3}-1.601572
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & pol_rel==1    

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-8046.9756}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7667.4777}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7652.0857}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -7652.029}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -7652.029}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    64,293
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    789.89
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -7652.029{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0491

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0990642{col 26}{space 2}  .049915{col 37}{space 1}    1.98{col 46}{space 3}0.047{col 54}{space 4} .0012325{col 67}{space 3} .1968958
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4664474{col 26}{space 2} .0480061{col 37}{space 1}    9.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3723572{col 67}{space 3} .5605376
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0650832{col 26}{space 2} .0293706{col 37}{space 1}    2.22{col 46}{space 3}0.027{col 54}{space 4}  .007518{col 67}{space 3} .1226485
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1757409{col 26}{space 2} .0270642{col 37}{space 1}   -6.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2287857{col 67}{space 3}-.1226961
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2777535{col 26}{space 2} .0317995{col 37}{space 1}   -8.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3400795{col 67}{space 3}-.2154275
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2386182{col 26}{space 2} .0317224{col 37}{space 1}    7.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1764435{col 67}{space 3} .3007928
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0289375{col 26}{space 2}  .001985{col 37}{space 1}  -14.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.032828{col 67}{space 3}-.0250469
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0004497{col 26}{space 2} .0000368{col 37}{space 1}   12.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0003775{col 67}{space 3} .0005218
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.82e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.84e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -9.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.18e-06{col 67}{space 3}-1.46e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.698064{col 26}{space 2} .0577694{col 37}{space 1}  -29.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.81129{col 67}{space 3}-1.584838
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. * Table A4: Region 
.         
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 eur afr me asia if allied==0 & icow==1 & reg_id==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-662.91627}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-584.84062}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-577.01654}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-576.97621}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -576.9762}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,435
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}13{txt}){col 67}= {res}    171.88
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -576.9762{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1296

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .292113{col 26}{space 2} .1338669{col 37}{space 1}    2.18{col 46}{space 3}0.029{col 54}{space 4} .0297386{col 67}{space 3} .5544873
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .756717{col 26}{space 2} .1299265{col 37}{space 1}    5.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5020658{col 67}{space 3} 1.011368
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1518346{col 26}{space 2}  .103165{col 37}{space 1}    1.47{col 46}{space 3}0.141{col 54}{space 4}-.0503651{col 67}{space 3} .3540344
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2492536{col 26}{space 2} .0972778{col 37}{space 1}    2.56{col 46}{space 3}0.010{col 54}{space 4} .0585927{col 67}{space 3} .4399146
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8831889{col 26}{space 2} .1320278{col 37}{space 1}   -6.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.141959{col 67}{space 3}-.6244191
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2563649{col 26}{space 2} .1323261{col 37}{space 1}   -1.94{col 46}{space 3}0.053{col 54}{space 4}-.5157193{col 67}{space 3} .0029895
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0377718{col 26}{space 2} .0091864{col 37}{space 1}   -4.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0557768{col 67}{space 3}-.0197668
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006127{col 26}{space 2} .0002144{col 37}{space 1}    2.86{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .0001924{col 67}{space 3} .0010329
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.21e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.33e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.66{col 46}{space 3}0.098{col 54}{space 4}-4.82e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.06e-07
{txt}{space 9}eur {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4375527{col 26}{space 2} .1173247{col 37}{space 1}    3.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2076006{col 67}{space 3} .6675049
{txt}{space 9}afr {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2021358{col 26}{space 2} .1283052{col 37}{space 1}    1.58{col 46}{space 3}0.115{col 54}{space 4}-.0493378{col 67}{space 3} .4536095
{txt}{space 10}me {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2957337{col 26}{space 2} .1627214{col 37}{space 1}    1.82{col 46}{space 3}0.069{col 54}{space 4}-.0231945{col 67}{space 3} .6146618
{txt}{space 8}asia {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0476692{col 26}{space 2} .1218609{col 37}{space 1}    0.39{col 46}{space 3}0.696{col 54}{space 4}-.1911738{col 67}{space 3} .2865121
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.649157{col 26}{space 2} .1946691{col 37}{space 1}   -8.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.030701{col 67}{space 3}-1.267613
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 eur afr me asia if allied==0 & icow==1 & reg_id==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-662.91627}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-585.06753}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-577.18922}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-577.14599}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-577.14598}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,435
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}13{txt}){col 67}= {res}    171.54
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-577.14598{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1294

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .287902{col 26}{space 2} .1372762{col 37}{space 1}    2.10{col 46}{space 3}0.036{col 54}{space 4} .0188456{col 67}{space 3} .5569585
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .753528{col 26}{space 2} .1306449{col 37}{space 1}    5.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4974687{col 67}{space 3} 1.009587
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1397788{col 26}{space 2} .1031476{col 37}{space 1}    1.36{col 46}{space 3}0.175{col 54}{space 4}-.0623868{col 67}{space 3} .3419443
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2514662{col 26}{space 2} .0971504{col 37}{space 1}    2.59{col 46}{space 3}0.010{col 54}{space 4}  .061055{col 67}{space 3} .4418774
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8618637{col 26}{space 2}  .131194{col 37}{space 1}   -6.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.118999{col 67}{space 3}-.6047281
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.258454{col 26}{space 2} .1323464{col 37}{space 1}   -1.95{col 46}{space 3}0.051{col 54}{space 4} -.517848{col 67}{space 3} .0009401
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0374611{col 26}{space 2} .0091802{col 37}{space 1}   -4.08{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0554539{col 67}{space 3}-.0194682
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006077{col 26}{space 2} .0002143{col 37}{space 1}    2.84{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} .0001876{col 67}{space 3} .0010278
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.19e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.33e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.64{col 46}{space 3}0.100{col 54}{space 4}-4.81e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.22e-07
{txt}{space 9}eur {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4273815{col 26}{space 2} .1178491{col 37}{space 1}    3.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1964016{col 67}{space 3} .6583615
{txt}{space 9}afr {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1993373{col 26}{space 2} .1286058{col 37}{space 1}    1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.121{col 54}{space 4}-.0527254{col 67}{space 3}    .4514
{txt}{space 10}me {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2807514{col 26}{space 2} .1629021{col 37}{space 1}    1.72{col 46}{space 3}0.085{col 54}{space 4}-.0385309{col 67}{space 3} .6000337
{txt}{space 8}asia {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0607697{col 26}{space 2} .1211344{col 37}{space 1}    0.50{col 46}{space 3}0.616{col 54}{space 4}-.1766494{col 67}{space 3} .2981889
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -1.65873{col 26}{space 2} .1972489{col 37}{space 1}   -8.41{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.045331{col 67}{space 3} -1.27213
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 eur afr me asia if allied==0 & icow==1 & reg_id==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-501.06543}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-435.27449}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-425.88566}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-425.77164}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-425.77162}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     4,458
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}13{txt}){col 67}= {res}    150.59
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-425.77162{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1503

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3089216{col 26}{space 2} .1530076{col 37}{space 1}    2.02{col 46}{space 3}0.043{col 54}{space 4} .0090322{col 67}{space 3}  .608811
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9595704{col 26}{space 2} .1633482{col 37}{space 1}    5.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6394138{col 67}{space 3} 1.279727
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0802481{col 26}{space 2} .1214801{col 37}{space 1}    0.66{col 46}{space 3}0.509{col 54}{space 4}-.1578485{col 67}{space 3} .3183448
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2011718{col 26}{space 2} .1173569{col 37}{space 1}    1.71{col 46}{space 3}0.086{col 54}{space 4}-.0288435{col 67}{space 3}  .431187
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.904984{col 26}{space 2}  .166618{col 37}{space 1}   -5.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.231549{col 67}{space 3}-.5784186
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1522636{col 26}{space 2} .1466283{col 37}{space 1}   -1.04{col 46}{space 3}0.299{col 54}{space 4}-.4396498{col 67}{space 3} .1351227
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0430376{col 26}{space 2} .0107056{col 37}{space 1}   -4.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0640202{col 67}{space 3} -.022055
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006261{col 26}{space 2} .0002478{col 37}{space 1}    2.53{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4} .0001405{col 67}{space 3} .0011117
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.93e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.52e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.27{col 46}{space 3}0.205{col 54}{space 4}-4.92e-06{col 67}{space 3} 1.05e-06
{txt}{space 9}eur {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5797132{col 26}{space 2}  .150124{col 37}{space 1}    3.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2854757{col 67}{space 3} .8739508
{txt}{space 9}afr {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3888223{col 26}{space 2} .1556948{col 37}{space 1}    2.50{col 46}{space 3}0.013{col 54}{space 4} .0836661{col 67}{space 3} .6939785
{txt}{space 10}me {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3287211{col 26}{space 2} .2123678{col 37}{space 1}    1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.122{col 54}{space 4}-.0875122{col 67}{space 3} .7449543
{txt}{space 8}asia {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2802884{col 26}{space 2}  .148638{col 37}{space 1}    1.89{col 46}{space 3}0.059{col 54}{space 4}-.0110366{col 67}{space 3} .5716135
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  -1.7767{col 26}{space 2} .2323351{col 37}{space 1}   -7.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.232068{col 67}{space 3}-1.321331
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Table A5: Contiguity
. 
.         probit form c_win t_maj c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75375.091}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -75198.33}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75197.344}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75197.343}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}8{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7705.81
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75197.343{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0487

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1159596{col 26}{space 2} .0096132{col 37}{space 1}   12.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .097118{col 67}{space 3} .1348011
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .511921{col 26}{space 2} .0182647{col 37}{space 1}   28.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4761228{col 67}{space 3} .5477192
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2769038{col 26}{space 2} .0080636{col 37}{space 1}  -34.34{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2927081{col 67}{space 3}-.2610996
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.462608{col 26}{space 2}  .011134{col 37}{space 1}  -41.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4844303{col 67}{space 3}-.4407857
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0324509{col 26}{space 2}  .007994{col 37}{space 1}    4.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .016783{col 67}{space 3} .0481189
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0393398{col 26}{space 2} .0007308{col 37}{space 1}  -53.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0407722{col 67}{space 3}-.0379074
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006941{col 26}{space 2} .0000171{col 37}{space 1}   40.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006606{col 67}{space 3} .0007276
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.14e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.34e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.94e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.507554{col 26}{space 2} .0112166{col 37}{space 1} -134.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.529538{col 67}{space 3} -1.48557
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75360.686}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75183.411}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -75182.42}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75182.419}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}8{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7735.66
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75182.419{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0489

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1217052{col 26}{space 2} .0091535{col 37}{space 1}   13.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1037647{col 67}{space 3} .1396458
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4984556{col 26}{space 2} .0179782{col 37}{space 1}   27.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .463219{col 67}{space 3} .5336922
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2808742{col 26}{space 2} .0080809{col 37}{space 1}  -34.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2967126{col 67}{space 3}-.2650359
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4587441{col 26}{space 2} .0111389{col 37}{space 1}  -41.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.480576{col 67}{space 3}-.4369123
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0328552{col 26}{space 2} .0079924{col 37}{space 1}    4.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0171904{col 67}{space 3}   .04852
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0392413{col 26}{space 2} .0007311{col 37}{space 1}  -53.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0406743{col 67}{space 3}-.0378083
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006927{col 26}{space 2} .0000171{col 37}{space 1}   40.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006591{col 67}{space 3} .0007262
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.14e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.34e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.94e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.494506{col 26}{space 2} .0105619{col 37}{space 1} -141.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.515207{col 67}{space 3}-1.473805
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0   

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-62848.394}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59906.769}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59779.021}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59778.589}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-59778.589}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   537,282
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}8{txt}){col 67}= {res}   6139.61
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-59778.589{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0488

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1474938{col 26}{space 2} .0101807{col 37}{space 1}   14.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1275401{col 67}{space 3} .1674475
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5672252{col 26}{space 2} .0210791{col 37}{space 1}   26.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5259108{col 67}{space 3} .6085395
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2495588{col 26}{space 2} .0092366{col 37}{space 1}  -27.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2676622{col 67}{space 3}-.2314555
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3539456{col 26}{space 2} .0143148{col 37}{space 1}  -24.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3820021{col 67}{space 3}-.3258892
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1315994{col 26}{space 2} .0089671{col 37}{space 1}   14.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1140241{col 67}{space 3} .1491746
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0361067{col 26}{space 2}  .000798{col 37}{space 1}  -45.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0376708{col 67}{space 3}-.0345426
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005831{col 26}{space 2}  .000018{col 37}{space 1}   32.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005479{col 67}{space 3} .0006183
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.47e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -24.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.67e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.27e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.643666{col 26}{space 2} .0127121{col 37}{space 1} -129.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.668581{col 67}{space 3}-1.618751
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
.         probit form c_win t_maj c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  & icow==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-602.85701}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-597.66689}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-597.65665}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-597.65665}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}8{txt}){col 67}= {res}    149.14
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-597.65665{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1109

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2823478{col 26}{space 2} .1268654{col 37}{space 1}    2.23{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4} .0336961{col 67}{space 3} .5309995
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6062787{col 26}{space 2} .1113135{col 37}{space 1}    5.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3881083{col 67}{space 3} .8244492
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3026202{col 26}{space 2} .0937241{col 37}{space 1}    3.23{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .1189242{col 67}{space 3} .4863161
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8976796{col 26}{space 2} .1252731{col 37}{space 1}   -7.17{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.14321{col 67}{space 3}-.6521487
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2913257{col 26}{space 2} .1293525{col 37}{space 1}   -2.25{col 46}{space 3}0.024{col 54}{space 4}-.5448519{col 67}{space 3}-.0377995
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0405192{col 26}{space 2} .0089255{col 37}{space 1}   -4.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0580129{col 67}{space 3}-.0230255
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006244{col 26}{space 2} .0002088{col 37}{space 1}    2.99{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0002153{col 67}{space 3} .0010336
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.13e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.30e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.64{col 46}{space 3}0.101{col 54}{space 4}-4.68e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.19e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.308659{col 26}{space 2} .1532689{col 37}{space 1}   -8.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.609061{col 67}{space 3}-1.008258
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-602.18003}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-596.74415}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-596.73151}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-596.73151}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}8{txt}){col 67}= {res}    150.99
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-596.73151{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1123

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3411414{col 26}{space 2} .1318633{col 37}{space 1}    2.59{col 46}{space 3}0.010{col 54}{space 4} .0826942{col 67}{space 3} .5995887
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .638001{col 26}{space 2} .1144016{col 37}{space 1}    5.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4137779{col 67}{space 3}  .862224
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3002066{col 26}{space 2} .0936963{col 37}{space 1}    3.20{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .1165652{col 67}{space 3} .4838479
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8797099{col 26}{space 2} .1249739{col 37}{space 1}   -7.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.124654{col 67}{space 3}-.6347657
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2961542{col 26}{space 2} .1295514{col 37}{space 1}   -2.29{col 46}{space 3}0.022{col 54}{space 4}-.5500702{col 67}{space 3}-.0422382
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0400743{col 26}{space 2}   .00893{col 37}{space 1}   -4.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0575767{col 67}{space 3}-.0225719
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006192{col 26}{space 2} .0002088{col 37}{space 1}    2.96{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0002099{col 67}{space 3} .0010285
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.12e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.30e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.63{col 46}{space 3}0.103{col 54}{space 4}-4.67e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.30e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.364738{col 26}{space 2} .1593447{col 37}{space 1}   -8.56{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.677048{col 67}{space 3}-1.052429
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-506.07949}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-445.73184}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-439.90388}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-439.85473}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-439.85471}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     4,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}8{txt}){col 67}= {res}    132.45
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-439.85471{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1309

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3349525{col 26}{space 2} .1481308{col 37}{space 1}    2.26{col 46}{space 3}0.024{col 54}{space 4} .0446214{col 67}{space 3} .6252835
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7896591{col 26}{space 2} .1438947{col 37}{space 1}    5.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5076306{col 67}{space 3} 1.071688
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2155316{col 26}{space 2} .1143674{col 37}{space 1}    1.88{col 46}{space 3}0.059{col 54}{space 4}-.0086244{col 67}{space 3} .4396877
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9089966{col 26}{space 2} .1584856{col 37}{space 1}   -5.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.219623{col 67}{space 3}-.5983705
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1933014{col 26}{space 2} .1436785{col 37}{space 1}   -1.35{col 46}{space 3}0.179{col 54}{space 4}-.4749061{col 67}{space 3} .0883033
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0461853{col 26}{space 2} .0103665{col 37}{space 1}   -4.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0665032{col 67}{space 3}-.0258674
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006425{col 26}{space 2} .0002401{col 37}{space 1}    2.68{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4} .0001719{col 67}{space 3} .0011131
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.91e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.48e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.30{col 46}{space 3}0.195{col 54}{space 4}-4.81e-06{col 67}{space 3} 9.81e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.324518{col 26}{space 2} .1780443{col 37}{space 1}   -7.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.673478{col 67}{space 3}-.9755574
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. * Table A6: Low Level MIDs
. 
.         probit form midcount_low if allied==0 & sample==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.243}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}1{txt}){col 67}= {res}      0.01
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.9171
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-79050.243{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
midcount_low {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0014661{col 26}{space 2} .0139871{col 37}{space 1}    0.10{col 46}{space 3}0.917{col 54}{space 4}-.0259481{col 67}{space 3} .0288803
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.954112{col 26}{space 2} .0032657{col 37}{space 1} -598.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.960513{col 67}{space 3}-1.947712
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form midcount_low t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & sample==1 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75422.701}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -75247.89}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75246.878}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75246.877}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7606.74
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75246.877{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0481

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
midcount_low {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0185353{col 26}{space 2} .0140696{col 37}{space 1}    1.32{col 46}{space 3}0.188{col 54}{space 4}-.0090406{col 67}{space 3} .0461112
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4537664{col 26}{space 2} .0177446{col 37}{space 1}   25.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4189877{col 67}{space 3} .4885451
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1248103{col 26}{space 2} .0195614{col 37}{space 1}    6.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0864706{col 67}{space 3} .1631501
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2719754{col 26}{space 2} .0080558{col 37}{space 1}  -33.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2877645{col 67}{space 3}-.2561863
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4662733{col 26}{space 2} .0111598{col 37}{space 1}  -41.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4881461{col 67}{space 3}-.4444006
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0349123{col 26}{space 2} .0079878{col 37}{space 1}    4.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0192565{col 67}{space 3}  .050568
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0396212{col 26}{space 2} .0007309{col 37}{space 1}  -54.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0410537{col 67}{space 3}-.0381887
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006986{col 26}{space 2} .0000171{col 37}{space 1}   40.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006651{col 67}{space 3} .0007322
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.16e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.36e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.96e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.444282{col 26}{space 2} .0097655{col 37}{space 1} -147.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.463422{col 67}{space 3}-1.425142
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form midcount_low c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & sample==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-79050.249}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75353.235}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75175.004}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75174.025}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-75174.024}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   668,944
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}10{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7752.45
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-75174.024{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0490

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
midcount_low {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0143229{col 26}{space 2} .0142181{col 37}{space 1}    1.01{col 46}{space 3}0.314{col 54}{space 4} -.013544{col 67}{space 3} .0421898
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1157637{col 26}{space 2} .0096207{col 37}{space 1}   12.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0969075{col 67}{space 3} .1346198
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5062885{col 26}{space 2} .0182992{col 37}{space 1}   27.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4704227{col 67}{space 3} .5421543
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .126184{col 26}{space 2} .0195616{col 37}{space 1}    6.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .087844{col 67}{space 3} .1645239
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2752523{col 26}{space 2}  .008069{col 37}{space 1}  -34.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2910673{col 67}{space 3}-.2594372
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4675355{col 26}{space 2} .0111663{col 37}{space 1}  -41.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4894211{col 67}{space 3}-.4456499
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0317318{col 26}{space 2} .0079962{col 37}{space 1}    3.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0160595{col 67}{space 3} .0474041
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0393372{col 26}{space 2}  .000731{col 37}{space 1}  -53.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0407699{col 67}{space 3}-.0379045
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006931{col 26}{space 2} .0000171{col 37}{space 1}   40.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006596{col 67}{space 3} .0007266
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.14e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.01e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.33e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.94e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.510183{col 26}{space 2} .0112276{col 37}{space 1} -134.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.532189{col 67}{space 3}-1.488177
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         probit form midcount_low if allied==0  & icow==1 & sample==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -672.2218}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -672.2218}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}1{txt}){col 67}= {res}      0.01
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.9056
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -672.2218{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
midcount_low {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0030857{col 26}{space 2}  .026162{col 37}{space 1}   -0.12{col 46}{space 3}0.906{col 54}{space 4}-.0543623{col 67}{space 3} .0481908
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.024994{col 26}{space 2} .0379217{col 37}{space 1}  -53.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.099319{col 67}{space 3}-1.950669
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form midcount_low t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  & icow==1 & sample==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-602.63107}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-597.52503}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-597.51438}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-597.51438}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    149.43
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-597.51438{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1111

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
midcount_low {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0187865{col 26}{space 2} .0290759{col 37}{space 1}   -0.65{col 46}{space 3}0.518{col 54}{space 4}-.0757741{col 67}{space 3} .0382012
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6162979{col 26}{space 2} .1144353{col 37}{space 1}    5.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3920088{col 67}{space 3} .8405871
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .222678{col 26}{space 2} .0994902{col 37}{space 1}    2.24{col 46}{space 3}0.025{col 54}{space 4} .0276809{col 67}{space 3} .4176752
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3211481{col 26}{space 2} .0937666{col 37}{space 1}    3.42{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}  .137369{col 67}{space 3} .5049272
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8520899{col 26}{space 2} .1249029{col 37}{space 1}   -6.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.096895{col 67}{space 3}-.6072848
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2497784{col 26}{space 2} .1312355{col 37}{space 1}   -1.90{col 46}{space 3}0.057{col 54}{space 4}-.5069952{col 67}{space 3} .0074383
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.038284{col 26}{space 2}  .008993{col 37}{space 1}   -4.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0559101{col 67}{space 3} -.020658
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005938{col 26}{space 2} .0002093{col 37}{space 1}    2.84{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} .0001835{col 67}{space 3} .0010041
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.02e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.30e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.121{col 54}{space 4}-4.58e-06{col 67}{space 3} 5.31e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.369578{col 26}{space 2} .1657479{col 37}{space 1}   -8.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.694438{col 67}{space 3}-1.044718
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form midcount_low t_maj c_win ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  & icow==1 & sample==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-672.22883}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-599.90413}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.41841}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.40682}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-594.40682}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,512
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}10{txt}){col 67}= {res}    155.64
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-594.40682{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1158

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
midcount_low {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0224942{col 26}{space 2} .0298556{col 37}{space 1}   -0.75{col 46}{space 3}0.451{col 54}{space 4}-.0810101{col 67}{space 3} .0360216
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7546886{col 26}{space 2} .1276216{col 37}{space 1}    5.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5045549{col 67}{space 3} 1.004822
{txt}{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3178873{col 26}{space 2}  .128311{col 37}{space 1}    2.48{col 46}{space 3}0.013{col 54}{space 4} .0664023{col 67}{space 3} .5693723
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2468831{col 26}{space 2} .0997437{col 37}{space 1}    2.48{col 46}{space 3}0.013{col 54}{space 4}  .051389{col 67}{space 3} .4423773
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3041929{col 26}{space 2} .0942011{col 37}{space 1}    3.23{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .1195621{col 67}{space 3} .4888236
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8697088{col 26}{space 2} .1260611{col 37}{space 1}   -6.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.116784{col 67}{space 3}-.6226335
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2647442{col 26}{space 2} .1321257{col 37}{space 1}   -2.00{col 46}{space 3}0.045{col 54}{space 4}-.5237057{col 67}{space 3}-.0057826
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0386517{col 26}{space 2} .0090405{col 37}{space 1}   -4.28{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0563707{col 67}{space 3}-.0209327
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006049{col 26}{space 2}   .00021{col 37}{space 1}    2.88{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .0001933{col 67}{space 3} .0010165
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.08e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.31e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.59{col 46}{space 3}0.111{col 54}{space 4}-4.64e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.79e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.550707{col 26}{space 2}  .182826{col 37}{space 1}   -8.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.909039{col 67}{space 3}-1.192375
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. * Table A7: US & Soviet Cold War Alliances
. 
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & us_cold==0 & sov_cold==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-67776.015}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-64922.047}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-64802.596}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-64801.828}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-64801.827}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   665,951
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   5948.38
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-64801.827{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0439

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1381605{col 26}{space 2} .0103713{col 37}{space 1}   13.32{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1178331{col 67}{space 3} .1584879
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4833909{col 26}{space 2} .0188494{col 37}{space 1}   25.64{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4464467{col 67}{space 3} .5203351
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1484202{col 26}{space 2} .0195681{col 37}{space 1}    7.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1100674{col 67}{space 3} .1867731
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3912278{col 26}{space 2} .0089401{col 37}{space 1}  -43.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  -.40875{col 67}{space 3}-.3737056
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4944279{col 26}{space 2} .0111885{col 37}{space 1}  -44.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.516357{col 67}{space 3}-.4724988
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1706754{col 26}{space 2} .0085675{col 37}{space 1}  -19.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1874674{col 67}{space 3}-.1538833
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0352509{col 26}{space 2} .0007787{col 37}{space 1}  -45.27{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.036777{col 67}{space 3}-.0337247
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006087{col 26}{space 2} .0000183{col 37}{space 1}   33.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005728{col 67}{space 3} .0006447
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.74e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.09e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -25.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.96e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.53e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.503164{col 26}{space 2}  .011803{col 37}{space 1} -127.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.526297{col 67}{space 3} -1.48003
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & us_cold==0 & sov_cold==0  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-67776.015}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-64913.815}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-64794.152}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-64793.377}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-64793.376}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   665,951
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   5965.28
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-64793.376{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0440

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1384813{col 26}{space 2} .0098781{col 37}{space 1}   14.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1191207{col 67}{space 3} .1578419
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .466289{col 26}{space 2} .0185335{col 37}{space 1}   25.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4299639{col 67}{space 3} .5026141
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1212086{col 26}{space 2} .0196557{col 37}{space 1}    6.17{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0826841{col 67}{space 3} .1597331
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3960374{col 26}{space 2} .0089581{col 37}{space 1}  -44.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4135949{col 67}{space 3}-.3784799
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4890596{col 26}{space 2} .0111945{col 37}{space 1}  -43.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5110004{col 67}{space 3}-.4671189
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1700811{col 26}{space 2} .0085656{col 37}{space 1}  -19.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1868693{col 67}{space 3}-.1532928
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0351507{col 26}{space 2} .0007791{col 37}{space 1}  -45.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0366777{col 67}{space 3}-.0336237
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006074{col 26}{space 2} .0000183{col 37}{space 1}   33.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005715{col 67}{space 3} .0006434
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.74e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.10e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -25.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.96e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.53e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.484134{col 26}{space 2}  .011056{col 37}{space 1} -134.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.505804{col 67}{space 3}-1.462465
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & us_cold==0 & sov_cold==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-53257.074}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-51027.468}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-50938.038}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -50937.72}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -50937.72}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   534,749
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   4638.71
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -50937.72{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0436

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .158906{col 26}{space 2} .0110409{col 37}{space 1}   14.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1372661{col 67}{space 3} .1805459
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5321978{col 26}{space 2} .0218713{col 37}{space 1}   24.33{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4893309{col 67}{space 3} .5750647
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1512461{col 26}{space 2} .0218668{col 37}{space 1}    6.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1083881{col 67}{space 3} .1941042
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4086768{col 26}{space 2} .0104346{col 37}{space 1}  -39.17{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4291282{col 67}{space 3}-.3882253
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3994312{col 26}{space 2} .0143796{col 37}{space 1}  -27.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4276148{col 67}{space 3}-.3712476
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0821033{col 26}{space 2} .0095591{col 37}{space 1}   -8.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1008388{col 67}{space 3}-.0633678
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0323967{col 26}{space 2} .0008439{col 37}{space 1}  -38.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0340506{col 67}{space 3}-.0307427
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005005{col 26}{space 2} .0000189{col 37}{space 1}   26.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0004635{col 67}{space 3} .0005376
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.08e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.07e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -19.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.29e-06{col 67}{space 3}-1.87e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.608251{col 26}{space 2}  .013352{col 37}{space 1} -120.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.63442{col 67}{space 3}-1.582081
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  & icow==1 & us_cold==0 & sov_cold==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-609.73927}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-548.88803}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-544.26889}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-544.26088}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-544.26088}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,496
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    130.96
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-544.26088{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1074

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4406815{col 26}{space 2} .1368311{col 37}{space 1}    3.22{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .1724974{col 67}{space 3} .7088656
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .827847{col 26}{space 2} .1322662{col 37}{space 1}    6.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}   .56861{col 67}{space 3} 1.087084
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2968771{col 26}{space 2}   .10405{col 37}{space 1}    2.85{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .0929429{col 67}{space 3} .5008114
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2717769{col 26}{space 2}   .09846{col 37}{space 1}    2.76{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4} .0787988{col 67}{space 3} .4647549
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8671718{col 26}{space 2} .1262718{col 37}{space 1}   -6.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.11466{col 67}{space 3}-.6196837
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4653773{col 26}{space 2} .1367415{col 37}{space 1}   -3.40{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.7333859{col 67}{space 3}-.1973688
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0372654{col 26}{space 2} .0093314{col 37}{space 1}   -3.99{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0555546{col 67}{space 3}-.0189762
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005928{col 26}{space 2} .0002162{col 37}{space 1}    2.74{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4} .0001691{col 67}{space 3} .0010166
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.08e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.34e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.122{col 54}{space 4}-4.71e-06{col 67}{space 3} 5.53e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.685984{col 26}{space 2} .1909414{col 37}{space 1}   -8.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.060222{col 67}{space 3}-1.311746
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1 & us_cold==0 & sov_cold==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-609.73927}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-548.36491}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-543.41759}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-543.40651}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-543.40651}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,496
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    132.67
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-543.40651{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1088

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4909108{col 26}{space 2}  .142804{col 37}{space 1}    3.44{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .2110201{col 67}{space 3} .7708014
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8494733{col 26}{space 2} .1344893{col 37}{space 1}    6.32{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .585879{col 67}{space 3} 1.113068
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2769427{col 26}{space 2} .1039707{col 37}{space 1}    2.66{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .0731639{col 67}{space 3} .4807215
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2716521{col 26}{space 2} .0983825{col 37}{space 1}    2.76{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4}  .078826{col 67}{space 3} .4644781
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8410221{col 26}{space 2} .1261171{col 37}{space 1}   -6.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.088207{col 67}{space 3} -.593837
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4725519{col 26}{space 2} .1369905{col 37}{space 1}   -3.45{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.7410484{col 67}{space 3}-.2040555
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.036655{col 26}{space 2} .0093277{col 37}{space 1}   -3.93{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0549369{col 67}{space 3}-.0183731
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005847{col 26}{space 2} .0002161{col 37}{space 1}    2.71{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4} .0001611{col 67}{space 3} .0010082
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.06e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.34e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.53{col 46}{space 3}0.125{col 54}{space 4}-4.69e-06{col 67}{space 3} 5.73e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.733008{col 26}{space 2} .1956108{col 37}{space 1}   -8.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.116398{col 67}{space 3}-1.349618
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1 & us_cold==0 & sov_cold==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-448.87515}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-397.39323}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-392.53707}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-392.50503}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-392.50503}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     4,497
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    112.74
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-392.50503{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1256

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5316228{col 26}{space 2} .1630921{col 37}{space 1}    3.26{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .2119682{col 67}{space 3} .8512774
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9906792{col 26}{space 2} .1648138{col 37}{space 1}    6.01{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6676501{col 67}{space 3} 1.313708
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2509212{col 26}{space 2} .1222764{col 37}{space 1}    2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.040{col 54}{space 4}  .011264{col 67}{space 3} .4905785
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1492161{col 26}{space 2} .1229172{col 37}{space 1}    1.21{col 46}{space 3}0.225{col 54}{space 4}-.0916971{col 67}{space 3} .3901294
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8874883{col 26}{space 2} .1603779{col 37}{space 1}   -5.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.201823{col 67}{space 3}-.5731535
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3701326{col 26}{space 2} .1516152{col 37}{space 1}   -2.44{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4}-.6672929{col 67}{space 3}-.0729723
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0435925{col 26}{space 2} .0109195{col 37}{space 1}   -3.99{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0649944{col 67}{space 3}-.0221907
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006276{col 26}{space 2} .0002495{col 37}{space 1}    2.52{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4} .0001386{col 67}{space 3} .0011167
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.96e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.53e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.29{col 46}{space 3}0.199{col 54}{space 4}-4.96e-06{col 67}{space 3} 1.03e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -1.67611{col 26}{space 2} .2246558{col 37}{space 1}   -7.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.116427{col 67}{space 3}-1.235793
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.                 
. * Table A8: Alliances with Non-military Organizations
. 
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & nonmilorg~=1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-65463.817}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-62070.546}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-61890.865}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-61889.789}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-61889.788}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   665,356
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7148.06
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-61889.788{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0546

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0252836{col 26}{space 2} .0105539{col 37}{space 1}    2.40{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4} .0045983{col 67}{space 3} .0459689
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5111002{col 26}{space 2} .0188916{col 37}{space 1}   27.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4740734{col 67}{space 3}  .548127
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}    .1339{col 26}{space 2} .0200397{col 37}{space 1}    6.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0946228{col 67}{space 3} .1731771
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3503195{col 26}{space 2} .0092342{col 37}{space 1}  -37.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3684182{col 67}{space 3}-.3322209
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3760088{col 26}{space 2} .0121372{col 37}{space 1}  -30.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3997973{col 67}{space 3}-.3522203
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1144577{col 26}{space 2} .0089589{col 37}{space 1}   12.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0968986{col 67}{space 3} .1320168
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0404988{col 26}{space 2} .0007894{col 37}{space 1}  -51.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.042046{col 67}{space 3}-.0389516
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007282{col 26}{space 2} .0000181{col 37}{space 1}   40.34{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006928{col 67}{space 3} .0007636
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.29e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.05e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.33{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.50e-06{col 67}{space 3}-3.08e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.600961{col 26}{space 2} .0122194{col 37}{space 1} -131.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.624911{col 67}{space 3}-1.577011
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & nonmilorg~=1 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-65463.817}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-62070.106}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-61890.473}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-61889.396}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-61889.395}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   665,356
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   7148.84
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-61889.395{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0546

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0261092{col 26}{space 2} .0102106{col 37}{space 1}    2.56{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4} .0060968{col 67}{space 3} .0461217
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5081721{col 26}{space 2} .0185856{col 37}{space 1}   27.34{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4717449{col 67}{space 3} .5445993
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1287799{col 26}{space 2} .0201422{col 37}{space 1}    6.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0893019{col 67}{space 3} .1682578
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3511895{col 26}{space 2}  .009247{col 37}{space 1}  -37.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3693133{col 67}{space 3}-.3330657
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3750118{col 26}{space 2} .0121397{col 37}{space 1}  -30.89{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3988052{col 67}{space 3}-.3512183
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1145413{col 26}{space 2} .0089571{col 37}{space 1}   12.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0969857{col 67}{space 3} .1320969
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0404795{col 26}{space 2} .0007896{col 37}{space 1}  -51.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0420272{col 67}{space 3}-.0389319
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007279{col 26}{space 2} .0000181{col 37}{space 1}   40.32{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006926{col 67}{space 3} .0007633
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.29e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.05e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -31.32{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.50e-06{col 67}{space 3}-3.08e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.597768{col 26}{space 2} .0115216{col 37}{space 1} -138.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.62035{col 67}{space 3}-1.575186
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & nonmilorg~=1 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-50901.326}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-48137.935}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-47993.402}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-47993.002}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-47993.002}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   534,148
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   5816.65
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-47993.002{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0571

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0445725{col 26}{space 2} .0112441{col 37}{space 1}    3.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0225345{col 67}{space 3} .0666105
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5886178{col 26}{space 2} .0219154{col 37}{space 1}   26.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5456644{col 67}{space 3} .6315712
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1261048{col 26}{space 2} .0226705{col 37}{space 1}    5.56{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0816714{col 67}{space 3} .1705383
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3036053{col 26}{space 2} .0107067{col 37}{space 1}  -28.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  -.32459{col 67}{space 3}-.2826207
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2558347{col 26}{space 2} .0158838{col 37}{space 1}  -16.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2869665{col 67}{space 3} -.224703
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .243273{col 26}{space 2} .0103023{col 37}{space 1}   23.61{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2230809{col 67}{space 3} .2634651
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0365739{col 26}{space 2} .0008684{col 37}{space 1}  -42.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.038276{col 67}{space 3}-.0348719
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006007{col 26}{space 2}  .000019{col 37}{space 1}   31.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005636{col 67}{space 3} .0006379
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.53e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.05e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -24.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.74e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.32e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.770042{col 26}{space 2} .0140534{col 37}{space 1} -125.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.797586{col 67}{space 3}-1.742498
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
.         probit form c_win t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  & icow==1 & nonmilorg~=1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-633.39857}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-568.99254}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-564.16328}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-564.15409}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-564.15409}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,502
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    138.49
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-564.15409{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1093

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}c_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2702516{col 26}{space 2} .1321236{col 37}{space 1}    2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.041{col 54}{space 4} .0112941{col 67}{space 3} .5292091
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7010442{col 26}{space 2} .1295961{col 37}{space 1}    5.41{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4470406{col 67}{space 3} .9550478
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2129368{col 26}{space 2} .1007845{col 37}{space 1}    2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.035{col 54}{space 4} .0154027{col 67}{space 3} .4104708
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2875477{col 26}{space 2} .0961403{col 37}{space 1}    2.99{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0991161{col 67}{space 3} .4759793
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7367473{col 26}{space 2} .1358531{col 37}{space 1}   -5.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.003014{col 67}{space 3}-.4704801
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1525984{col 26}{space 2}  .140372{col 37}{space 1}   -1.09{col 46}{space 3}0.277{col 54}{space 4}-.4277224{col 67}{space 3} .1225256
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0424456{col 26}{space 2} .0091565{col 37}{space 1}   -4.64{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0603921{col 67}{space 3}-.0244992
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006949{col 26}{space 2} .0002125{col 37}{space 1}    3.27{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0002784{col 67}{space 3} .0011114
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.59e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.32e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.96{col 46}{space 3}0.050{col 54}{space 4}-5.17e-06{col 67}{space 3}-3.29e-09
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.622167{col 26}{space 2} .1901267{col 37}{space 1}   -8.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.994809{col 67}{space 3}-1.249525
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_wina t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1 & nonmilorg~=1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-633.39857}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-568.82395}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-563.87387}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-563.86366}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-563.86366}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,502
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    139.07
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-563.86366{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1098

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_wina {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2961984{col 26}{space 2} .1364376{col 37}{space 1}    2.17{col 46}{space 3}0.030{col 54}{space 4} .0287855{col 67}{space 3} .5636113
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7101586{col 26}{space 2} .1305536{col 37}{space 1}    5.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4542783{col 67}{space 3}  .966039
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1989396{col 26}{space 2} .1004957{col 37}{space 1}    1.98{col 46}{space 3}0.048{col 54}{space 4} .0019717{col 67}{space 3} .3959075
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2874844{col 26}{space 2} .0960673{col 37}{space 1}    2.99{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}  .099196{col 67}{space 3} .4757728
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.721223{col 26}{space 2} .1355315{col 37}{space 1}   -5.32{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9868598{col 67}{space 3}-.4555861
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.156975{col 26}{space 2} .1404442{col 37}{space 1}   -1.12{col 46}{space 3}0.264{col 54}{space 4}-.4322407{col 67}{space 3} .1182906
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0420642{col 26}{space 2} .0091543{col 37}{space 1}   -4.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0600062{col 67}{space 3}-.0241221
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006897{col 26}{space 2} .0002125{col 37}{space 1}    3.25{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .0002733{col 67}{space 3} .0011061
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.57e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.32e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.95{col 46}{space 3}0.051{col 54}{space 4}-5.15e-06{col 67}{space 3} 1.06e-08
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.645015{col 26}{space 2} .1930358{col 37}{space 1}   -8.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.023358{col 67}{space 3}-1.266672
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         probit form c_spend t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0 & icow==1 & nonmilorg~=1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-472.02388}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-416.08658}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-410.73069}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-410.69232}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-410.69231}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     4,503
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    122.66
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-410.69231{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1299

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}c_spend {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2631244{col 26}{space 2} .1547464{col 37}{space 1}    1.70{col 46}{space 3}0.089{col 54}{space 4}-.0401731{col 67}{space 3} .5664219
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8243199{col 26}{space 2} .1596679{col 37}{space 1}    5.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5113766{col 67}{space 3} 1.137263
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1412644{col 26}{space 2} .1173954{col 37}{space 1}    1.20{col 46}{space 3}0.229{col 54}{space 4}-.0888264{col 67}{space 3} .3713552
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1970916{col 26}{space 2} .1187224{col 37}{space 1}    1.66{col 46}{space 3}0.097{col 54}{space 4}-.0356001{col 67}{space 3} .4297833
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6864535{col 26}{space 2} .1752622{col 37}{space 1}   -3.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.029961{col 67}{space 3}-.3429459
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0068866{col 26}{space 2}  .162163{col 37}{space 1}    0.04{col 46}{space 3}0.966{col 54}{space 4} -.310947{col 67}{space 3} .3247202
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0496211{col 26}{space 2} .0107407{col 37}{space 1}   -4.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0706726{col 67}{space 3}-.0285697
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007363{col 26}{space 2} .0002457{col 37}{space 1}    3.00{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} .0002548{col 67}{space 3} .0012179
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.47e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.50e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.65{col 46}{space 3}0.099{col 54}{space 4}-5.42e-06{col 67}{space 3} 4.68e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.592522{col 26}{space 2} .2241482{col 37}{space 1}   -7.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.031844{col 67}{space 3}  -1.1532
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. * Table A9: Military Personnel
. 
.         probit form c_pers t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-72834.527}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-68983.777}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-68790.913}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-68790.285}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-68790.284}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   640,684
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   8088.48
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-68790.284{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0555

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_pers {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1041017{col 26}{space 2} .0096436{col 37}{space 1}   10.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0852007{col 67}{space 3} .1230028
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5307218{col 26}{space 2} .0189194{col 37}{space 1}   28.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4936406{col 67}{space 3} .5678031
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1327505{col 26}{space 2}  .019763{col 37}{space 1}    6.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0940157{col 67}{space 3} .1714853
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.270055{col 26}{space 2} .0084417{col 37}{space 1}  -31.99{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2866004{col 67}{space 3}-.2535096
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4129959{col 26}{space 2} .0119437{col 37}{space 1}  -34.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4364051{col 67}{space 3}-.3895867
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0827681{col 26}{space 2}  .008413{col 37}{space 1}    9.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .066279{col 67}{space 3} .0992572
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0409639{col 26}{space 2} .0007668{col 37}{space 1}  -53.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0424667{col 67}{space 3} -.039461
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006677{col 26}{space 2}  .000018{col 37}{space 1}   37.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006324{col 67}{space 3}  .000703
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.88e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.05e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -27.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.67e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.535638{col 26}{space 2} .0115731{col 37}{space 1} -132.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.55832{col 67}{space 3}-1.512955
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         probit form c_pers t_maj ct_contig c_ally precold cold form_years form_years2 form_years3 if allied==0  & icow==1

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-617.56558}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-558.74228}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-554.35703}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-554.34824}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-554.34824}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     6,296
{txt}{col 49}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    126.43
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-554.34824{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1024

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        form{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}c_pers {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2084486{col 26}{space 2} .1253523{col 37}{space 1}    1.66{col 46}{space 3}0.096{col 54}{space 4}-.0372373{col 67}{space 3} .4541345
{txt}{space 7}t_maj {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6421011{col 26}{space 2} .1249686{col 37}{space 1}    5.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3971672{col 67}{space 3}  .887035
{txt}{space 3}ct_contig {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1979014{col 26}{space 2} .1021994{col 37}{space 1}    1.94{col 46}{space 3}0.053{col 54}{space 4}-.0024057{col 67}{space 3} .3982085
{txt}{space 6}c_ally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2499261{col 26}{space 2} .0983312{col 37}{space 1}    2.54{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4} .0572004{col 67}{space 3} .4426517
{txt}{space 5}precold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5873261{col 26}{space 2} .1452412{col 37}{space 1}   -4.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8719937{col 67}{space 3}-.3026585
{txt}{space 8}cold {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0585138{col 26}{space 2} .1470649{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.691{col 54}{space 4}-.3467557{col 67}{space 3}  .229728
{txt}{space 2}form_years {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0416768{col 26}{space 2} .0091994{col 37}{space 1}   -4.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0597072{col 67}{space 3}-.0236464
{txt}{space 1}form_years2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005974{col 26}{space 2}  .000216{col 37}{space 1}    2.77{col 46}{space 3}0.006{col 54}{space 4}  .000174{col 67}{space 3} .0010209
{txt}{space 1}form_years3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.85e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.35e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.37{col 46}{space 3}0.171{col 54}{space 4}-4.50e-06{col 67}{space 3} 7.99e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.623528{col 26}{space 2} .1934663{col 37}{space 1}   -8.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.002715{col 67}{space 3}-1.244341
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
{txt}end of do-file

{com}. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}E:\Jesse's Documents\Alliance and External Threat\JohnsonISQrep\JohnsonISQrep.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res} 1 Jul 2016, 14:27:44
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}